by Clinton Monchuk, FFC SK Executive Director
Growing food in Saskatchewan has always been an uncertain business, but the current political environment of trade wars has amplified uncertainty to a whole new level.
My educational background is in economics. I spent over three years of my career working in both Ottawa and Washington DC on trade-related files for farmers and ranchers. Many people might not realize this, but Canada has been involved in numerous trade-related disagreements with our largest trading partner, the United States. Prior to 2007 when grain, cattle and hog prices were more depressed, it seemed there were consistent trade related countervailing challenges brought forth at the World Trade Organization and the trade tribunal of the North American Free Trade Agreement. These may have made some headlines for the general consuming public, but more of a page 5 article, not the front page. The difference between those issues and the current trade related challenges is they were product specific verses a blanket over all products. Those trade issues also came from disgruntled farmers/ranchers that pushed the issues up to the United States Trade Representative, then to the President.
Fast forward to 2025 and we’re living in a new ballgame. First of all, we trade much more than we did in the past. In fact, in 2024 the Province of Saskatchewan alone exported an estimated $14 billion worth of agri-food goods, mainly to the United States and China. Presidents of both the United States and China are pushing tariffs down the chain; it’s not coming up the chain. Many American farmers and ranchers realize trade has grown their businesses and are not in favour of the current approach because it will either cost them more for inputs (fuel or fertilizer) or lower their commodity prices. The other thing is the tariffs are not just affecting one or two commodities; it’s everything and this is affecting general consumers.
Discussions about tariffs are now in everyday conversations with Canadians, so people widely understand that this will affect pocketbooks, and not in a positive manner. Canadian consumers are showing their patriotism and have indicated that they want to support Canadian products. Canadian Food Focus has seen a doubling of interest online, with the number of Canadians trying to understand more about Canadian food. Topics like What’s in Season and the difference between ‘Product of Canada’ and ‘Made in Canada’ labels have more Canadians, including my family, proactively searching for Canadian food.
Increased demand for Canadian products can be seen as a patriotic boon for agriculture, however we also have to consider our excessive food production, especially in the crop and livestock sectors. We are an export nation and we won’t be able to eat our way out of this trade war. We rely on exports of agriculture goods in the same manner that others rely on our food to consume. This is food security.
The uncertainty of our current agriculture environment is a concern for farmers and ranchers, and also consumers. Hopefully common sense and basic economics will prevail in the end.